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Newton, S and Smith, V K (1992) Methods of analysing risk exposure in the cost estimates of high quality offices. Construction Management and Economics, 10(05), 431-49.
Ofori, G (1992) The environment: the fourth construction project objective?. Construction Management and Economics, 10(05), 369-95.
Shash, A A and Abdul-Hadi, N H (1992) Factors affecting a contractor's mark-up size decision in Saudi Arabia. Construction Management and Economics, 10(05), 415-29.
Skitmore, M R (1992) Parameter prediction for cash-flow forecasting models. Construction Management and Economics, 10(05), 397-413.
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: cash-flow; forecast; project type; regression analysis
- ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446199200000038
- Abstract:
The paper describes the application of the DHSS formula to 27 complete construction projects comprising four types - steel-frames low rise buildings, new build housing developments, housing refurbishment projects, and multi-house ’pre-paint’ maintenance contracts. Application of the formula to individual projects indicates that the ’best’ parameter values offer a ten-fold improvement over the published values based on project size. Similar results occur when using the best parameter values for other two-parameter models. Various approaches are considered in attempting to predict the best parameter values of the models based on known characteristics of the project. A multiple linear regression with project value, duration, and type independent variables is shown not to produce any significant improvement on standard DHSS formula predictions. However, a reduction in the number of independent variables by cross validation produces an approximately 25% improvement on standard DHSS formula forecasts outside the database. Examination of the models derived from this analysis indicate the type of project to be of major importance.